Market Update: July 30, 2024
Economic data for the week included 2nd quarter U.S. GDP ramping back up to above-trend levels, a mixed environment for recent durable goods orders, and declines in both existing and new home sales.
Equities were mixed last week, with gains in U.S. value and small cap, offset by declines in U.S. growth and internationally. Bonds gained along with falling yields, as inflation remained contained. Commodity prices fell across the board last week, led by energy and metals.
U.S. stocks were mixed again last week with ‘value’ ending in the positive, outperforming ‘growth,’ which saw sharp declines. Small cap also ended several percentage points higher, continuing a stretch of recent rapid outperformance. By sector, utilities, health care, materials, and financials ended in the lead with gains of over 1%, while communications (Alphabet and Disney), consumer discretionary (Tesla and Starbucks), and technology lagged with declines of several percent. Real estate ticked slightly higher, as interest rates declined.
President Biden’s decision to end his re-election bid didn’t have an immediate impact but may have begun to play a subtle role as investors recalculated Trump vs. Harris election odds as well as began to digest policy differences. Mid-week, tech-related stocks pulled the market down for the worst single day in two years (-2.3%). Earnings calls for Alphabet and Tesla disappointed, raising concern for the entire group that has provided such an extreme degree of market leadership this year. In Alphabet’s case, it was less about earnings, but more about additional capital spending on artificial intelligence, which concerned markets. By Friday, the ‘not worse’ PCE inflation number has turned sentiment again sharply positive. Interestingly, it’s possible that the ‘bad news is good news’ has reverted back to a more normal narrative of ‘good news is good news,’ now that inflation has come under better control and the Fed appears to be on a concrete path of rate cuts by summer’s end.
The Magnificent 7 Group has already experienced more than a -10% correction, as opposed to the broader S&P 500, which is only down around -4% from peak. Even with strong fundamentals, such elevated valuations have left the high-flying technology segment of the market vulnerable to smaller disappointments that deviate from the expected narrative, as is usually the case. The higher the valuation, the less room for error from the standpoint of sentiment.
Per FactSet, with over 40% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q2 results, nearly 80% have announced a positive earnings surprise and 60% a positive revenue surprise. This has brought the quarterly blended (actual plus estimates) earnings growth rate up to 9.8%—up about a percent from expectations a few weeks ago. By sector, communications and technology continue to lead, despite the contrary market results over the past few weeks. Interestingly, despite some concerns about profit margins, these have also continued to improve by a few tenths, back up above 12%.
Foreign stocks fell back on net, with gains in Europe and the U.K. offset by a sharp decline in Japan, due to a stronger yen, which is expected to hamper exporters. Emerging markets also experienced declines, led downward by China, Mexico, Turkey, and Taiwan. Fears of global trade tensions, instigated by the U.S. tended to dampen sentiment.
The Bank of China cut interest rates by 0.10% in a surprise move, following their Third Plenum 5-year planning meeting, after which policymakers indicated a plan to increase government borrowing and spending to boost the economy, in addition to a focus on technology reliance. This wasn’t a dramatic move but signaled more of an easing policy bias. Also, removed from the statement was some of the pro-market language seen in earlier Plenums, was removed, with the dangers of market failures noted. This could be a sign of additional government influence in market activities, but that remains an open question.
Bonds gained across the board, with yields falling. High yield outperformed investment-grade corporates and U.S. Treasuries, while floating rate bank loans fell back slightly along with the lower rates. Foreign bonds also fared positively, with little impact from the U.S. dollar for the week.
Commodities fell back across the board last week, led by declines in industrial metals and energy, although precious metals also fell back a bit. Crude oil prices fell -2% last week to $77/barrel, as drilling activity picked up and demand growth in China weighed on markets. Oil prices have fallen nearly -10% over the past few weeks, and copper is down -20% over the past two months due to some of these same demand concerns.
The information above has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but no representation is made as to its completeness, accuracy or timeliness. All information and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Information provided in this report is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment, legal or tax advice; and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any security, investment or other product.